Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
